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TROPICAL STORM NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172023
0300 UTC WED OCT 18 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 107.8W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE  30SE   0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  60SE  30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 107.8W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 107.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.4N 108.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...130NE  60SE  30SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.5N 108.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE  60SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.5N 108.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE  70SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.3N 108.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE  80SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.2N 109.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE  80SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.2N 109.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE  80SW 130NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 21.3N 110.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 22.5N 109.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 107.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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