ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
900 PM MDT Thu Oct 05 2023
Lidia seems to gradually be getting better organized. The estimated
low-level center appears to be more closely aligned with the deepest
convection, with cloud top temperatures of -90 degrees C. Still,
the majority of the convection is on the western portion of the
circulation. The latest subjective satellite intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB are T3.5/55kt and the initial wind speed is raised
to 55 kt for this advisory.
The storm is moving very slowly westward, at an estimated 270/2 kt.
Lidia is being steered by the weak currents of a mid-level ridge
located over Mexico. As the ridge strengthens, the cyclone will
continue to move westward at a slightly quicker pace for about the
next day. In a day or two, Lidia should begin to slowly turn
northward as the ridge begins to retreat eastward. By days 4 and
5, the system should accelerate northeastward in the flow ahead of
an upper-level trough. The initial position needed to be adjusted
slightly southward based on the last-light visible imagery showing
the low-level spiral bands becoming more co-located with the deep
convection. This relocation shifted the official track forecast
southward from the previous advisory, which still lies between the
various consensus aids.
In terms of the intensity forecast, the atmospheric and oceanic
conditions are still mixed. The upper-level winds are expected to
induce moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear through the majority
of the forecast period. However, the warm sea surface temperature
and relatively decent mid-level humdities create conducive
conditions for strengthening. The model guidance indicates this
should lead to gradual strengthening for the next couple of days or
so. As the surrounding mid-level moisture decreases, the storm
should slowly weaken between days 3 through 5. The latest NHC
forecast shifted the peak intensity to 48 h and lies a little above
the various consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0300Z 15.8N 110.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 15.9N 110.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 15.9N 111.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 16.0N 112.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 16.4N 113.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 16.8N 113.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 17.3N 113.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 18.2N 112.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 18.6N 110.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Bucci
NNNN