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Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
900 PM MDT Wed Oct 04 2023
Lidia has maintained its small, sheared structure for the past
several hours. Convection has been waning, but infrared
geostationary imagery shows a growing burst of convection
developing west of the estimated low-level center. Microwave
imagery also revealed a large curved band around the western and
northern portion of the circulation. Subjective and objective
satellite intensity guidance nearly all agree on a 45-kt estimate,
and therefore, the initial intensity is held constant for this
advisory.
The storm has a somewhat uncertain motion since the center position
is obscured by the cirrus canopy, but the direction is estimated to
be northwestward, or 325/6 kt. A mid-level ridge over Mexico is
steering Lidia, and the storm is expected to maintain its current
motion for the next 12 hours or so. Then the ridge is forecast to
build and turn the cyclone westward in the next day or so, with a
slight decrease in forward motion. By day 5, global models predict
the ridge will erode and turn Lidia northwestward. There is still
above average spread in the model guidance, largely due to the
along-track differences in the westward progression of the storm.
The latest official track forecast has shifted slightly north of the
previous advisory and favors the simple consensus aid, TVCE.
There are competing factors contributing to the intensity forecast.
While the storm is forecast to be over warm ocean waters and in an
area of decent mid-level moisture, a limiting factor is still the
moderate-to-strong deep-layer vertical wind shear. Most models
show gradual strengthening, and minor adjustments have been made to
the latest NHC intensity forecast, which is closest to the IVCN
consensus aid.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 15.6N 109.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 16.0N 109.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 16.2N 110.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 16.3N 111.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 16.1N 112.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 16.0N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 16.1N 113.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 16.5N 114.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 17.0N 115.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Bucci
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