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Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
300 PM MDT Wed Oct 04 2023
Lidia is experiencing a robust burst of convection very near the
center of low-level circulation in the past couple of hours, but
displays little overall change in appearance and organization since
this morning. Shortly after the previous advisory the low-level
center became exposed to the east of the deep convection on visible
GOES-18 satellite. Within the past few hours, the low-level center
is now under a deep burst of convection, allowing subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates this cycle from TAFB and SAB to remain at
T3.0/45 kt. Thus, initial intensity remains at 45 kt for this
advisory.
The initial motion is north-northwestward or 335 degrees at 6 kt. A
mid-level ridge over Mexico will continue to steer the system
north-northwestward during the next day or so. Afterwards, a ridge
will build to the north of Lidia which will result in a slower
forward motion and a turn towards the west through the remainder of
the forecast period. There continues to be a large spread in the
along-track guidance as the system turns westward. Most of the
global models are faster, while the hurricane regional models and
HCCA corrected consensus aid are slower. Therefore, there is
increased uncertainty in the long range track forecast. The NHC
track exhibits little change from the previous advisory, and lies
between the faster global models and the slower regional models.
Models are in fairly good agreement that the moderate-to-strong
easterly vertical wind shear will persist over Lidia the next
several days. However, warm sea surface temperatures, a moist
environment and upper-level diffluence will allow slow strengthening
of the system. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
forecast, and the intensity forecast lies near the IVCN consensus
aid.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/2100Z 15.2N 108.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 15.7N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 16.1N 109.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 16.1N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 16.0N 111.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 15.8N 112.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 15.8N 113.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 16.1N 114.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 16.6N 114.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Konarik
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