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HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023
0900 UTC TUE AUG 15 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 120.7W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 120.7W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 120.2W
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.3N 122.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.7N 124.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 5SE 5SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.9N 127.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.0N 130.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 18.2N 132.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.3N 135.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 18.5N 142.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 18.4N 148.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 120.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER KELLY/BERG
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