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Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
500 PM HST Wed Aug 16 2023
Fernanda has refused to give in to the increasingly inhibiting
environment and has recently produced a fragmented band with
associated -63 degree Celsius cloud top temperatures in the
west quadrant of the cyclone. Assuming, however, that the
new burst is insufficient to maintain Fernanda's previous advisory
intensity of 45 kt, the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt.
Cooler oceanic temperatures (sub 26C) and an very dry, stable
marine-layer air mass should result in continued weakening. Fernanda
is expected to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone in 12 hours,
with dissipation occurring this weekend.
The initial motion is estimated to be just south of due west, or
265/13 kt. There has been no change to the forecast track
philosophy. A subtropical ridge should remain anchored to the north
of Fernanda during the next few days. Accordingly, Fernanda is
forecast to move generally westward through the period. The track
guidance remains tightly clustered, and only a slight along-track
adjustment was needed for the latest NHC forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0300Z 16.7N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 16.6N 131.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 18/0000Z 16.5N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/1200Z 16.5N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0000Z 16.5N 139.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/1200Z 16.5N 141.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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