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Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
500 PM HST Sun Jul 10 2022
Darby has continued to strengthen since the last advisory. Deep
convection near and over its center has been persistent during the
past several hours, and a series of passive microwave images
revealed a well-defined inner core structure has developed
underneath Darby's small central dense overcast. Although the
subjective Dvorak classifications at 00 UTC were a consensus T3.5/55
kt, the objective ADT and SATCON estimates have recently climbed as
high as 72 kt based on the improved microwave structure of the
storm. Based on these trends, the initial intensity is set at 65 kt
for this advisory, which makes Darby the fourth eastern North
Pacific hurricane this season.
The near-term environmental conditions remain favorable for
additional strengthening, as Darby is forecast to move over warm
SSTs within a low deep-layer shear environment. Although the small
hurricane could be susceptible to additional bouts of dry-air
entrainment, the improved inner-core structure of Darby should allow
the cyclone to continue intensifying over the next day or so before
it reaches cooler waters by Wednesday. The official intensity
forecast is slightly above the previous one and remains on the high
end of the guidance, slightly higher than the HFIP corrected
consensus approach (HCCA) and the SHIPS guidance. By midweek, Darby
is forecast to encounter drier mid-level air as it crosses the 26 C
isotherm, which should induce a weakening trend. Given its small
size, Darby should weaken quickly later in the period, and the day 5
forecast shows Darby as a 30-kt post-tropical remnant low.
Darby's motion is just a bit north of due west at 275/15 kt. Darby
will continue moving quickly westward for the next couple of days,
to the south of an established mid-level ridge that extends across
the eastern North Pacific. As the cyclone reaches the southwestern
extent of the ridge, it is forecast to turn west-northwestward later
this week. There is still some along-track spread noted among the
various global models, with the UKMET much faster and farther south
than the GFS and ECMWF solutions at later forecast times. The
official NHC track forecast remains very close to the previous one,
and is generally just a bit north of the consensus aids and closer
to the GFS/ECMWF consensus (GFEX).
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0300Z 14.6N 120.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 14.7N 122.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 14.9N 125.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 15.1N 127.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 15.4N 130.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 13/1200Z 16.0N 132.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 16.7N 135.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 18.0N 140.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 18.5N 145.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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