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Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
900 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022
Blas continues to battle moderate northeasterly shear this evening.
Geostationary satellite infrared imagery shows cloud top
temperatures have warmed over a large portion of the central dense
overcast. There is still some strong convection near the center and
curved banding features. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB evaluate the intensity at 90 kt and 77 kt, respectively.
Objective Dvorak estimates are somewhat lower and the initial
intensity is held at 75 kt as a compromise of these estimates.
Blas is forecast to move over gradually cooling SSTs and into an
increasingly dry environment over the next few days. These
environmental factors should result in a slow weakening trend. The
NHC intensity prediction is slightly above the model consensus and
it is possible the storm could weaken faster than indicated here.
The initial motion estimate remains about the same, at 290/9 kt. A
mid-level ridge to the north continues to be the dominant steering
feature and Blas is expected to maintain its west-northwest track
with some increase in forward speed during the next day or so.
Later in the forecast period, a weaker and more shallow Blas is
likely to turn westward or west-southwestward within the low-level
tradewind flow. The track model guidance is tightly clustered, and
the latest NHC forecast is near the middle of the track guidance
suite.
While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, its
associated swells are affecting portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico and are expected to spread to portions of the
southern Baja California peninsula by late Friday. These swells are
likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions in those
areas through the weekend.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0300Z 16.5N 106.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 17.3N 108.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 18.0N 110.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 18.4N 112.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 18.7N 113.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 19/1200Z 18.7N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 18.5N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/0000Z 18.1N 117.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/0000Z 18.1N 119.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
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