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Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
400 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022
The convective organization of Tropical Storm Blas continues to
improve based on satellite imagery which shows a convective core
forming with a well-defined mid-level circulation. The initial wind
speed has been raised to 45 kt and is in agreement with Dvorak
estimates.
Future intensification of Blas is expected in the short-term
forecast. The high SSTs and low vertical wind shear provide the
baseline conditions for the storm to quickly intensify in the next
24 h, as indicated by statistical model guidance. Beyond this
timeframe, environmental conditions are expected to become
increasingly unfavorable as an upper-level anticyclone builds over
Mexico and increases the shear over Blas. The NHC intensity
forecast is higher in the short-term than the last cycle and
reflects the potential for quicker intensification.
Blas continues to drift northward and the NHC track forecast has
been shifted northward primarily due to initial storm motion and
position. By tomorrow Blas is expected to turn west-northwestward
and gradually accelerate due to a building ridge and continue that
motion for the next several days. Model guidance has trended
northward and faster, potentially due to a deeper tropical cyclone
circulation feeling the upper-level easterly flow. The NHC
forecast is shifted in that direction near or just south of the
consensus guidance.
Even though the system is forecast to remain off the coast of
Mexico, the associated swells are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico starting later today.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100Z 14.8N 102.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 15.1N 102.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 15.4N 102.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 15.8N 103.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 16.3N 105.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 16.9N 107.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 17.5N 109.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 18.6N 112.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 19.0N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake
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