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TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142021
2100 UTC MON SEP 13 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF BAFFIN 
BAY TEXAS. 
 
THE STORM SURGE WATCH FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS, TEXAS 
INCLUDING CORPUS CHRISTI BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO SABINE PASS
* GALVESTON BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...AND MATAGORDA BAY
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAFFIN BAY TO SABINE PASS
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABINE PASS TO RUTHERFORD BEACH LOUISIANA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING 
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE 
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR 
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT 
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS 
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO 
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR 
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER 
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF
AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF NICHOLAS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N  96.4W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......100NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N  96.4W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N  96.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.7N  96.1W...ON THE COAST
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 29.9N  95.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE  20SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 30.4N  94.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 30.9N  92.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 31.1N  91.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 32.0N  90.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.4N  96.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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