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Tropical Storm Polo Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020
100 PM PST Wed Nov 18 2020
While the cloud pattern was fairly well organized this morning, Polo
provided a little surprise when the center popped out of the central
dense overcast. The system has since developed deep convection near
the center, so perhaps this was a temporary fluctuation but reflects
marginal environmental conditions. The initial wind speed is kept
at 40 kt as a blend of the satellite data, and unfortunately
scatterometer data missed again for a more certain estimate. Polo
probably will peak in intensity during the next 12 hours or so
before a combination of higher shear and dry/stable air causes the
storm to weaken and eventually become a remnant low on Friday. No
significant changes were made to the intensity forecast, and there
were no meaningful model outliers from the NHC prediction.
At least the exposed center allowed for a more precise initial
motion estimate, though it ended up about the same as before 285/10.
Model guidance is tightly clustered on the storm turning westward
tomorrow while it remains to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge.
The small cyclone will likely decay into a trough of low pressure
by the weekend. Only cosmetic changes were made to the last
forecast, which continues to lie near or just south of the model
consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/2100Z 16.5N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 16.8N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 17.0N 120.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 17.1N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 17.1N 125.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
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