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Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020
800 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020
Since the issuance of the previous NHC advisory, deep convection
associated with the depression has waned and become separated from
the low-level center due to modest northeasterly shear. This has
resulted in the low-level center becoming exposed. With the recent
loss of organization, Dvorak data T-numbers have decreased and a
blend of the various estimates yields an initial wind speed of 30
kt. The dynamical model guidance suggests that moderate to strong
shear will continue to plague the cyclone during the next 2 to 3
days, and the intensity guidance is not quite as bullish as before.
As a result, the new NHC intensity forecast calls for little change
in strength during that time. It still remains possible, however,
that new bursts of convection could allow the depression to cross
the tropical storm threshold. After 72 hours, the shear is
forecast to decrease but less favorable thermodynamic conditions
are expected to prevent strengthening. The new forecast calls for
the depression to degenerate into a remnant low by the end of the
forecast period, but this could occur much sooner if the shear
persists and the depression is unable to generate persistent
convection.
The depression is moving westward or 270/4 kt. A low- to mid-level
ridge to the north of the system is expected to steer the cyclone
slowly west-southwestward during the next 24 to 36 hours. After
that time, the depression is forecast to meander generally
northwestward. The latest runs of the dynamical models have trended
toward a slower motion of the cyclone between days 2-5, and the
updated NHC track forecast has been shifted eastward to account
for this model trend.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0300Z 14.2N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 14.1N 131.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 13.9N 132.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 13.7N 133.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 13.7N 133.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 13.9N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 14.4N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 14.8N 134.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 14.9N 134.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Brown
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