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Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 29
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
500 AM HST Mon Jul 27 2020
Hurricane Hunters from the Air Force's 53rd Weather Reconnaissance
Squadron completed their final mission into Douglas a couple
of hours ago, and the team at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center
is extremely grateful for their unwavering support. Although the
later passes didn't find winds as strong as the initial passes of
the mission, the central pressure remained steady. Additionally,
Douglas' satellite appearance has changed little since the last
center penetration, and the initial intensity for this advisory has
been maintained at 80 kt.
The initial motion estimate is 290/15 kt, with Douglas primarily
being steered by a low- to mid-level ridge centered to the north of
the cyclone. In the upper levels, Douglas lies between a ridge to
the east and a trough to the west, and has been hanging tough in an
environment characterized by significant southerly vertical wind
shear. The expectation is that this debilitating wind shear will
persist over the cyclone for the next couple of days, with
significant weakening occurring as the cyclone gets sheared apart.
The increasingly shallow system is then expected to be steered
toward the west until dissipation occurs in a couple of days. The
updated track forecast is close to the previous, as well as most of
the reliable dynamical model guidance. The intensity forecast also
leans more heavily on the dynamical models, and anticipates that a
fairly rapid rate of weakening will soon commence.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/1500Z 22.9N 160.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 23.3N 163.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 23.7N 166.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 24.1N 170.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 24.5N 174.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 25.0N 178.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 25.6N 178.1E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Birchard
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