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Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
900 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020
Cristina's satellite presentation has degraded somewhat during the
past several hours, with deep convection on the wane and some
evidence of dry air near the center. Still, microwave data does
show a large banding pattern with a mid-level core present,
suggesting there might be more than meets the eye than just
conventional satellite imagery. The current intensity of the storm
is difficult to ascertain, as estimates from generally credible
techniques range from 45 kt to 77 kt on this package. It is
probably best to keep the initial wind speed 60 kt for now, and we
will see if the intensity becomes more clear overnight.
The storm has about a day over marginally warm waters in light
shear conditions before SSTs begin to cool, and eventually
more significant dry air is entrained into the inner core. Thus
some strengthening is anticipated on Friday, and Cristina should
start a gradual weakening over the weekend through early next week.
The cyclone should have a challenging time producing convection over
sub-23C waters, which happens in about 72 hours, so that is the
time chosen for post-tropical transition. This is earlier than the
previous forecast and best matches a GFS/ECMWF blend. No
significant changes were made to the intensity forecast with
guidance in good agreement at this time.
Christina continues moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt.
A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected
to strengthen over the next day or so, which should force
the storm in a similar direction but with a slight increase in
forward speed. Over the weekend, as the cyclone weakens, a gradual
turn to the west is expected. The forecast track is a little slower
than the previous one at long range, otherwise the track is
basically an update of the earlier track prediction.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0300Z 18.4N 111.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 19.1N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 20.1N 116.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 20.8N 118.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 21.3N 121.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 12/1200Z 21.6N 124.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 21.8N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 14/0000Z 22.2N 132.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/0000Z 22.5N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Blake
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