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Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
900 AM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020
First light satellite images show that the convective organization
of Cristina is gradually improving, while banding features are
developing across the northern portion of the circulation. The
center remains underneath the northeastern side of the main area of
convection due to moderate shear, but this shear appears to be
diminishing. The initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt,
which is a blend of the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB.
Cristina turned to the northwest and slowed down to about 10 kt this
morning. A turn back toward the west-northwest is expected to occur
later today or tonight, and this motion is forecast to continue for
the next few days as the cyclone is steered by a large ridge
centered over the southwestern United States. Later in the forecast
period, a turn to the west is expected as the weakening cyclone
becomes steered by the low-level easterlies. The track guidance is
tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast lies near the middle of
the envelope.
The decreasing shear over Cristina combined with warm SSTs and a
moist air mass should allow the cyclone to intensify over the next
couple of days. After that time, the system will cross over the 26
C isotherm and enter into a drier and more stable atmospheric
environment. This should cause a steady weakening trend to begin
after 48 h. Although the forecast still shows Cristina as a tropical
storm in 5 days, it is possible all of the deep convection would
have dissipated by that time. The latest NHC forecast is very close
to the intensity consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/1500Z 14.6N 106.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 15.4N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 16.6N 110.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 17.6N 112.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 18.5N 114.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 19.5N 116.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 20.2N 119.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 21.0N 124.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 21.5N 130.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Latto
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