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Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL212020
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020
 
Although the stiff westerly shear (magnitude of greater than 50 kt) 
continues to affect Vicky's vertical structure this morning, a 1107 
UTC METOP-B scatterometer pass indicated that the cyclone is 
maintaining 45-kt sustained winds well to the east-northeast of 
the center.  Therefore, once again for this advisory, the initial 
intensity is held at 45 kt.
 
The ECMWF/FV3 SHIPS intensity models and the deterministic 
guidance, including the simulated infrared imagery product, agree 
with Vicky weakening to a remnant low in 36 hours and dissipating 
by 72 hours due to the persistent strong shear.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/8 
kt.  Vicky is forecast to continue on this general motion through 
Wednesday night within the low-level tradewind flow.  No 
significant changes were made to the previous advisory, and the new 
NHC forecast is based on the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/1500Z 20.6N  31.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 21.3N  32.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 21.9N  34.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 22.3N  36.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/1200Z 22.2N  38.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  18/0000Z 22.2N  39.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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