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TROPICAL STORM SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192020
0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE
* MOBILE BAY
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N  82.9W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  35 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N  82.9W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N  82.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 27.0N  84.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  70SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.7N  86.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  20SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.3N  87.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 28.8N  88.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 29.4N  89.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 30.1N  89.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  40SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 31.7N  89.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 33.5N  86.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N  82.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
 
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