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Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
800 PM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019
Juliette has remained resilient despite moving over SSTs around
25-26C over the past several hours. Deep convection continues to
envelop the center with a ragged eye apparent in both visible and
infrared satellite imagery. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates
from both TAFB and SAB suggest that the initial intensity remains at
75 kt. The cyclone will be moving over cooler waters of 24-25C
tonight and tomorrow, and will remain over these water temperatures
for the next several days. This should cause Juliette to slowly
weaken. After 48 hours, southwesterly shear is expected to begin to
impact Juliette's circulation. The combination of the cooler waters
and shear should cause Juliette to become a post-tropical remnant
low by 72 hours. The official forecast is very similar to the
previous one, and near the various intensity consensus aids.
Juliette's initial motion is 305/10 kt. A turn to the west-northwest
is expected on Friday as the cyclone is steered by a subtropical
ridge to its north. As the cyclone weakens and becomes steered by
the low-level flow, a turn to the west is expected. The only
notable change to the new official forecast track was a slight
increase in forward speed beyond 48 hours, as the consensus aids
have come into a little better agreement on a faster forward motion
during that time period.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0300Z 21.8N 121.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 23.3N 125.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 23.7N 127.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 23.7N 129.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 23.5N 133.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/0000Z 23.3N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/0000Z 23.6N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Latto
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