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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162019
700 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

...DISTURBANCE NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER
TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 94.6W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Aucilla River Florida
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Aucilla River to Yankeetown Florida

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
23.3 North, longitude 94.6 West. The system is moving toward the
northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northeastward motion at a faster
forward speed is expected on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast
track, the system will approach the northern Gulf Coast Friday and
Friday night and then move over portions of the southeastern United
States on Saturday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical
or subtropical storm later tonight or on Friday, with slow
strengthening then expected through Friday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
mainly to the southwest of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft
Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Friday afternoon, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

Gale-force winds are possible along portions of the Atlantic coast
of the southeastern United States by Saturday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf
Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas,
with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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