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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 74.5W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Flagler-Volusia County line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of this system.  Additional watches and warnings may
be required for portions of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 25.0 North, longitude 74.5 West. The system is barely
moving, but is expected to resume a slow motion toward the
northwest and north-northwest later today. On the forecast
track, the system is anticipated to move across the central and
northwestern Bahamas today, and along or near the east coast of
Florida Saturday and Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression
or a tropical storm later today or Saturday.

Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or
a tropical storm later today or Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwestern Bahamas later today.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on the Florida peninsula
by Saturday or Saturday night.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce
total rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

The Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches.
The U.S. Southeast Coast from central Florida into South
Carolina...2 to 4 inches.

STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

NNNN