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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022019
2100 UTC WED JUL 10 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY LOUISIANA.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO CAMERON

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NORTHWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. GULF COAST FROM THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N  87.4W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N  87.4W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N  87.0W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.7N  88.1W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.5N  89.0W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 27.6N  90.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 28.2N  91.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 29.3N  92.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE  80SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 31.9N  93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 34.8N  93.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N  87.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 11/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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