ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132018
800 PM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018

Kristy appears to have begun a slow weakening trend as it is now
passing over progressively cooler SSTs. Convection has become
confined mainly to the northeastern quadrant, likely in response to
some moderate west-southwesterly shear, as analyzed by UW-CIMSS.
The initial intensity has been lowered to 55 kt, and is in
agreement with the current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.
The intensity forecast philosophy remains the same as in the recent
forecasts. Kristy will move over SSTs of 23-25 degrees C over the
next couple of days, and steady weakening is expected to occur
tonight through Sunday. By Sunday evening, Kristy is expected to
lose any remaining deep convection and become a remnant low.

Kristy is moving just west of due north, with an initial motion
estimate of 355/8 kt. During the weakening trend over the next
couple of days, Kristy should make a gradual turn to the northwest
as it becomes shallower and therefore steered by the low- to mid-
level flow around ridging to the north. As the system loses its
convection and becomes a remnant low, a turn to the west-northwest
is expected. This motion will then continue until the remnant low
dissipates by the middle of the week. The track guidance is in good
agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast has been
shifted slightly to the left of the previous forecast, following the
trends in the latest consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 20.5N 130.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 21.1N 130.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 21.7N 130.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  12/1200Z 22.0N 131.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  13/0000Z 22.3N 132.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/0000Z 23.0N 134.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/0000Z 23.6N 137.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  16/0000Z 24.4N 140.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg/Latto

NNNN