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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018
400 AM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

...TINY CARLOTTA HUGGING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS EXTENDED WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 100.7W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning east of Tepac de Galeana and has extended the Tropical
Storm Warning westward to Lazaro Cardenas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan De Galeana to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 100.7 West. Carlotta is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today.  On the forecast track, the
small core of Carlotta should move inland within the warning area
later today or early Monday. However, any deviation to the right
of the track could result in an earlier landfall.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated, and the small
cyclone could dissipate at a faster rate if the entire circulation
moves over the high terrain of Mexico today or Monday.

Carlotta is a very small cyclone, and the tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) mainly to the east
and south of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Carlotta is forecast to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall
along the Guerrero, southwestern Oaxaca, and southern Michoacan
coasts including the city of Acapulco, with isolated higher amounts
of 10 inches possible.  These rains are likely to produce life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of
higher terrain. Elsewhere across the states of Guerrero and Oaxaca,
rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches
are forecast.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are likely to spread westward along
the warning area.

SURF:  Swells generated by Carlotta are affecting portions of
the coast of southern Mexico.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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