ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Aletta Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022018
900 AM MDT Sat Jun 09 2018
Recent microwave data indicates that the cloud pattern of Aletta
continues to lose organization due to southerly vertical wind
shear, with the remains of the eye located near the south edge of
the main convective area. The initial intensity is reduced to a
possibly generous 85 kt based on a combination of subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates.
Rapid weakening should continue due to a combination of shear,
decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track, and
entrainment of dry air. Aletta is currently forecast to drop below
hurricane strength in less than 24 h, weaken to a depression by 48
h, and subsequently degenerate to a remnant low by 72 h. The new
intensity forecast follows the trend of the tightly clustered
intensity guidance.
The initial motion is now 295/5. The cyclone should move generally
northwestward around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge
over northwestern Mexico during the next day or so. After Aletta
weakens and becomes a more vertically shallow system, it should turn
westward, and then southwestward, in the low-level trade wind flow.
In contrast to the last advisory, the guidance envelope for this
advisory has has shifted somewhat to the north. The new forecast
track is similar to, but just north of the previous forecast, and it
lies to the south of the center of the guidance envelope and the
group of consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 16.4N 113.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 16.9N 113.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 17.3N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 17.4N 116.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 17.4N 117.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 17.0N 119.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1200Z 16.5N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/1200Z 15.5N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Beven
NNNN