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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017
900 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017
Dora continues to exhibit a very symmetric cloud pattern with a
well-defined 25 to 30 n mi wide eye. The convective cloud tops have
gradually warmed today, but subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB still support an initial intensity of 80 kt. The
hurricane will be moving over cooler waters as it crosses the 26
degree Celsius isotherm very soon. Since the shear is expected to
remain quite low throughout the forecast period, this may result in
a somewhat slower than typical rate of weakening during the next day
or so. After that time, Dora will be moving over waters colder
than 24 degrees Celsius which should cause a faster rate of decay.
Dora is forecast to become a tropical storm in about 24 hours, and
degenerate into a remnant low in 2 to 3 days. The NHC intensity
forecast is initially close to the SHIPS/LGEM guidance but leans
toward the intensity consensus at 24 h and beyond.
Dora is moving west-northwestward or 295/11 kt. A large deep-layer
ridge to the north of the hurricane should keep it moving on a
west-northwestward track during the next 24 to 36 hours. After
that time, a weaker and more shallow Dora should turn generally
westward in the low-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is
essentially an update of the previous advisory and is close to
the latest multi-model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0300Z 18.4N 108.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 18.9N 109.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 19.4N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 19.8N 113.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 20.2N 114.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 20.7N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0000Z 20.5N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
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