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TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162017
0300 UTC FRI OCT 06 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA...
EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER... INCLUDING THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MORGAN CITY... LOUISIANA...
EASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER... INCLUDING METROPOLITAN
NEW ORLEANS... LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN... AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
BORDER EASTWARD TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE IN FLORIDA.  A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY... LOUISIANA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR NICARAGUA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER
* PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* NORTHERN AND EASTERN SHORES OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
* PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE
* WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS... THE BAY ISLANDS... WESTERN
CUBA... THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NATE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N  84.7W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N  84.7W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N  84.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.8N  85.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.8N  87.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.3N  89.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 27.5N  90.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 33.7N  87.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  50SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 40.0N  79.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 43.0N  68.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N  84.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


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