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Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
200 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

...MARIA REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE AFTER MOVING OVER
DOMINICA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 61.9W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Anguilla
* St. Lucia
* Martinique

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Anguilla
* Isla Saona to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* West of Puerto Plata to the northern Dominican Republic-Haiti
border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the southeastern Bahamas, and
the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the progress of Maria.
Additional watches and warnings may be required today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.  For storm information specific to your area
outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your
national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 61.9 West. Maria is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday.  On the forecast
track, the eye of Maria will move over the northeastern Caribbean
Sea today, and approach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight
and Wednesday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have decreased only slightly, to
near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts.  Maria is a category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some
fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but
Maria is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 or 5
hurricane while it approaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance data is
942 mb (27.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Winds over Dominica are diminishing.  Hurricane conditions
should spread throughout portions of the hurricane warning area in
the Leeward Islands this morning.  Hurricane conditions should
spread through the remainder of the Hurricane Warning area later
today and Wednesday.  Hurricane conditions are possible within the
Hurricane Watch area in the Dominican Republic late Wednesday, with
tropical storm conditions possible by early Wednesday.  Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in
St. Vincent and the Grenadines this morning, and are possible in
the Tropical Storm Watch area in the Dominican Republic on
Wednesday.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
could be much stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this
advisory.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11
feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area near
where the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands and the
British Virgin Islands.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is expected to reach
the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Thursday:

Central and southern Leeward Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 10 inches.
Windward Islands and Barbados...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
Eastern Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

Rainfall on all of these islands could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Lesser Antilles.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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