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Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 15 2017

The overall organization of the tropical depression has changed
little since this afternoon.  The center remains exposed to the
north and northwest of the deep convection, but there has been a
slight increase in banding over the southern semicircle within
the past hour or two.  The initial intensity remains 30 kt, which
is in agreement with Dvorak data T-numbers from both TAFB and
SAB.  The depression is forecast to remain within an area of
moderate to strong northwesterly shear during the next 24 to 36
hours while it moves over warm water.  Therefore, only slight
strengthening is indicated over the weekend.  After that time,
increasing westerly shear is forecast to weaken the cyclone, and it
is expected to become a remnant low by the end of the forecast
period.

The depression has turned westward since the previous advisory, and
the initial motion estimate is 280/9 kt. There has been no change
to the track forecast reasoning.  The cyclone should move westward
to west-northwestward to the south of a narrow ridge over the
eastern Atlantic through Sunday.  The global models indicate that
the ridge will weaken early next week as a large deep-layer trough
forms over the east-central Atlantic.  This is expected to result in
a slightly more poleward track later in the period.  The updated NHC
forecast is near the middle of the guidance through 48 hours, but
leans toward the left side of the envelope later in the period since
the typically reliable ECMWF and HFIP corrected consensus models are
along the southern edge envelope at 72 h and beyond.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 12.8N  30.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 12.8N  31.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 12.9N  33.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 13.0N  34.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 13.3N  35.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  19/0000Z 15.0N  39.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  20/0000Z 17.2N  43.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  21/0000Z 19.0N  47.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

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