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TROPICAL STORM ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016
2100 UTC SUN SEP 11 2016
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 117.7W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  75SE  45SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 117.7W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 117.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.0N 118.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 17.9N 119.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 18.6N 119.9W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 19.1N 119.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.5N 120.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 19.0N 124.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 19.0N 129.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 117.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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