ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112016
0300 UTC MON AUG 08 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO
TODO SANTOS...MEXICO.  ELSEWHERE ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF TODO SANTOS TO CABO SAN
LAZARO...AND FROM EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS TO LOS BARRILES. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF LOS BARRILES TO SAN
EVARISTO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO TO LORETO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO SAN LUCAS TO TODO SANTOS

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR...
* TODO SANTOS TO CABO SAN LAZARO
* CABO SAN LUCAS TO LOS BARRILES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LOS BARRILES TO SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS
FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 107.7W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  30SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 107.7W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 107.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.4N 108.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.2N 109.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.1N 110.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.5N 111.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.5N 113.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 28.9N 114.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 107.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


NNNN