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TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016

Georgette continues to quickly weaken, with the associated
convection decreasing significantly in both coverage and intensity
since the last advisory.  The initial intensity is reduced to 60 kt
based on a blend of Dvorak T- and Current Intensity-numbers from
TAFB and SAB.  However, the latest estimates from objective
techniques at
CIMSS suggest this could be generous.  Georgette should continue to
weaken in an environment of dry mid-level air and sea surface
temperatures of 23C-25C, and the intensity forecast calls for the
tropical cyclone to decay to a remnant low by 48 hours.  The system
is subsequently expected to dissipate by 96 hours.

The motion remains slow at 305/3.  Water vapor imagery shows a mid-
to upper-level trough is moving westward to the north and northwest
of Georgette.  This feature has likely weakened the subtropical
ridge and contributed to the current slow motion.  The dynamical
models forecast the ridge to build north of Georgette during the
next 72 hours, which should steer the cyclone or its remnants
northwestward and then westward during the next 72-96 hours.  The
new forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies just
south of the various consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 18.4N 128.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 18.8N 129.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 19.8N 130.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 20.7N 131.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 21.5N 134.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  29/1200Z 22.0N 138.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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