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TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
900 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016

Estelle looks a little less organized than this afternoon, since the
eye feature seen on previous microwave imagery has disappeared and
the tropical cyclone is displaying a more asymmetric pattern.  The
initial wind speed is held at 60 kt for this advisory, a blend of
the T- and CI-numbers from TAFB/SAB.  It seems like some
northwesterly shear is preventing much intensification at
this time.  The shear, however, should abate during the next 24
hours, which would allow for gradual strengthening until the storm
reaches cooler water in a couple of days.  Thereafter, a more steady
weakening is likely, and Estelle should become post-tropical in
about 5 days while it moves over 23 deg C waters.  The models have
backed off somewhat on the peak intensity, and the official forecast
follows suit, although the new prediction is higher than the
consensus for the first few days.

Best estimate of initial motion is to the west-northwest at about 8
kt.  Estelle should continue to move on that general course for the
next couple of days, with perhaps a bend toward the west in 3 days
due to the subtropical ridge to the north temporarily strengthening.
Overall, the global models are showing less ridging between 130-140W
at long range, which would cause Estelle to turn west-northwestward
or even northwestward by the end of the forecast period.
Accordingly, most of the models have again shifted northward this
cycle, and the official forecast is moved in that direction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 17.0N 113.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 17.4N 114.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 18.0N 116.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 18.6N 117.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 19.0N 120.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  21/0000Z 19.6N 124.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  22/0000Z 21.0N 129.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  23/0000Z 23.5N 134.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Blake

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