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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016
300 PM MDT WED JUL 06 2016
Satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure area located well
southwest of the coast of Mexico now has a well-defined circulation
and sufficient organized convection to be designated a tropical
depression. Thus, advisories are initiated on Tropical Depression
Four-E with an initial intensity of 30 kt.
The depression is moving westward or 280 degrees at 7 kt. A weak
low- to mid-level ridge should steer the cyclone westward at a
less than climatological forward speed for the next 3-4 days,
followed by a west-northwestward motion by day 5. The track
forecast guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the
track forecast is in the center of the guidance envelope.
The dynamical models forecast that the cyclone will be in an
environment of light vertical wind shear for the next five days.
However, it is forecast to cross an area of cooler water, possibly a
cold wake left by Hurricane Blas, during the next 72 hours. This is
expected to allow only slow intensification during that time.
Subsequently, the cyclone should move over warmer water and
strengthen at a faster rate. The intensity forecast is in best
agreement with the SHIPS model, and it calls for the cyclone to
become a tropical storm in about 24 hours and a hurricane in about
96 hours. An alternative scenario is that the cyclone strengthens
faster than currently forecast due to the conducive shear
environment.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 12.2N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 12.3N 110.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 12.3N 111.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 12.5N 112.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 12.5N 114.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 12.5N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 13.0N 120.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 14.5N 123.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
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Forecaster Beven
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