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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012016
1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016

The low-level center of the depression is difficult to locate even
on microwave imagery. Any convection left is weakening and is
confined within a band well removed from the alleged center. The
current position is highly uncertain and is based primarily on
continuity and some hint of a circulation in the low clouds.  The
initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt, and given the current
shear, and the fact that the circulation is already interacting with
the high terrain of Mexico, additional weakening is anticipated. The
depression is forecast to become a remnant low in about 12 hours.

The depression appears to be moving toward the northeast or 045
degrees at 3 kt. The steering flow should force the system on a slow
northeastward track, bringing the depression gradually inland.
Another alternative is for the mid-level center to move
northeastward while a weak low-level swirl remains meandering near
the coast.

Despite the observed weakening of the depression, very heavy rain
continues. This rainfall is enhanced by the moist southwest flow
over the high terrain of southern Mexico and western Guatemala where
flash floods and mud slides are

 anticipated.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 15.9N  94.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 16.3N  94.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  09/0000Z 16.5N  94.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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