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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER  37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2016

...KARL FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 64.8W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Watch for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 64.8 West.  Karl is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through this evening.  A turn toward the
northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected on
Saturday.  On the forecast track, the center of Karl should pass
near or to the east of Bermuda late tonight or early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Karl
is expected to become a hurricane on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Hurricane
conditions are also possible on Bermuda tonight.

RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches over Bermuda through Saturday and early Sunday.

TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes are possible on Bermuda later today
and tonight.

SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are affecting Bermuda and are
expected to increase during the next couple of days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Sullivan/Gerhardt/Schichtel

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