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TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016
1500 UTC SUN SEP 18 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  43.4W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......150NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE  30SE  30SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  43.4W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  42.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.2N  45.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...150NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.6N  48.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...150NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.3N  50.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE  60SE  40SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.2N  53.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE  90SE  40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.3N  58.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 24.7N  63.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 27.3N  66.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N  43.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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