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TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016
2100 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  35.6W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......200NE  80SE   0SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE  30SE  90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  35.6W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N  35.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.0N  37.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...170NE  80SE   0SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.0N  39.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...130NE  60SE   0SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.0N  42.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...130NE  60SE   0SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.0N  45.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE  70SE  30SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.0N  50.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE  40SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 22.0N  55.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 25.0N  60.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N  35.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 
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