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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016

...EARL NOT A HURRICANE YET BUT EXPECTED TO BE ONE VERY SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 84.8W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala
border.
* Bay Islands, Honduras.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the
Honduras/Guatemala border.
* North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 84.8 West. Earl is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed
during the next 48 hours.  On the forecast track, the core of Earl
is expected to pass near the Honduras Bay Islands this afternoon,
and then make landfall in Belize tonight or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. An Air Force reconnaissance plane is currently investigating
Earl and will determine if the cyclone has reached hurricane
intensity.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 12
hours or so, and Earl is expected to be a little stronger by the
time it reaches Belize. Weakening is expected after the center of
Earl moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure from an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter plane was 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are probably already occuring along
the north coast of Honduras, including the Bay Islands, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  These conditions will
reach Belize and Mexico within the hurricane and tropical storm
warning area by tonight or early Thursday.  Hurricane conditions are
expected to begin in the Bay Islands of Honduras later today and
in portions of the hurricane warning area in Belize and Mexico
tonight or early Thursday.

RAINFALL:  Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8
to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night.  Very heavy
rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz between
Thursday night and Saturday morning.  Isolated maximum amounts of
16 inches are possible in Belize and Mexico.  These rains could
result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE:  A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula near and to the north of
where the center makes landfall.  Storm surge will raise water
levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas
of onshore winds on the Bay Island of Honduras.  Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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