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TROPICAL STORM MARTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172015
1500 UTC SUN SEP 27 2015
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO...MEXICO TO LAZARO CARDENAS...MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 102.8W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 100SE 20SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 102.8W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 102.9W
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.4N 102.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.0N 102.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 50SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 16.3N 101.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 60SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 16.7N 101.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.0N 102.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 17.5N 103.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 17.0N 104.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 102.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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