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TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015
800 PM PDT WED SEP 09 2015

Linda's weakening trend continues. Most of the convection with cloud
tops of -45 to -55 deg C has now been displaced primarily into the
northern quadrant deep due to moderate southerly vertical wind
shear. The initial intensity of 55 kt is based on a consensus Dvorak
CI-number of 3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion estimate is 320/08 kt. The NHC model guidance
remains in fairy good agreement on Linda moving northwestward around
the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge for the next 36
hours or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest
and west after that as the cyclone weakens into a shallow remnant
low and is steered by the easterly trade wind flow. The official
forecast track is essentially just an update and extension of the
previous advisory track, and lies down the middle of the guidance
envelope near the consensus model, TCVE.

A comparison of low-level positions from microwave imagery with the
visible and infrared location of the upper-level circulation clearly
indicates that the surface and upper-level circulations continue to
decouple. Linda is currently crossing the 24 deg C SST isotherm and
is headed for 23 C water, so additional weakening is forecast as
convection continues to wane due to rapidly worsening thermodynamic
conditions. The cyclone is forecast to weaken to a depression within
the next 24 hours and become a remnant low by 36 hours, if not
sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory and the IVCN intensity consensus model.

Large swells from Linda are affecting the Pacific coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and these swells are expected to reach
southern California on Thursday. In addition, some of Linda's mid-
and upper-level moisture is expected to spread northward into
portions of the southwestern U.S. during the next day or two, which
could trigger locally heavy rainfall. For additional information,
please consult products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center
and your local NWS forecast office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 25.0N 117.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 25.8N 118.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 26.6N 119.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 27.1N 120.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  12/0000Z 27.3N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/0000Z 27.4N 122.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  14/0000Z 26.8N 122.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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