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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112015
200 PM PDT MON AUG 17 2015

Deep convection has waned considerably since the previous advisory
and is now sheared more than 75 n mi northwest of the center, barely
enough to produce a satellite classification of T1.5/25 kt, which
is the intensity used for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is 310/16 kt.  There is no change to
the previous forecast track or reasoning. The model guidance
remains in excellent agreement on the cyclone moving northwestward
to west-northwestward through the 72-hour forecast cycle. The
official track forecast is just an update of the previous advisory
and is similar to a blend of the consensus models TVCE and GFEX
through 24 hours, and then lies close to the GFEX solution after
that.

The depression is now over sub-24 deg C sea-surface temperatures,
which means that it is not long for this world. The cyclone is
forecast to steadily move over colder ocean temperatures and into
a drier and more stable air mass, which should result in further
erosion of the convective cloud pattern. Therefore, the cyclone is
expected to become a remnant low pressure system within the next 12
hours, and dissipate by 96 hours as the system spins down over 22
deg C SSTs. The official intensity forecast is similar to the
previous advisory and closely follows the consensus model IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 23.1N 122.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 24.4N 124.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  18/1800Z 25.8N 127.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  19/0600Z 26.9N 129.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/1800Z 27.9N 130.7W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/1800Z 29.8N 132.9W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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