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TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
800 PM PDT MON JUL 13 2015

Enrique continues to produce a limited amount of deep convection,
likely due to the stable air mass that it is embedded within.
Satellite images show a small area of thunderstorms just north of
the center and a more organized band over the northeastern
quadrant.  The initial wind speed is held at 35 kt, but Dvorak
T-numbers suggest that this could be generous.  Little change in
strength is expected during the next day or two.  After that time,
however, weakening is forecast when the storm moves over water
cooler than 26 C and into an environment of higher wind shear.  The
intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, and is
in good agreement with the intensity model consensus.

The storm has made the expected turn to the left, and the latest
initial motion estimate is 290/8 kt.  A continued west-northwestward
motion at about the same speed is predicted for the next 2 to 3 days
while Enrique remains steered by a narrow mid-level ridge.  After
that time, a considerable slowdown is expected, when the steering
currents collapse in response to Hurricane Dolores to the east and a
deep-layer trough extending southwestward from the west coast of
the United States.  The new NHC track forecast is a little south of
the previous one, and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 16.8N 128.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 17.3N 129.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 17.9N 131.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 18.3N 132.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 18.8N 133.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 19.9N 136.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  18/0000Z 20.0N 137.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/0000Z 19.0N 138.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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