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TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
2100 UTC SUN JUL 12 2015
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 103.0W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE  40SE   0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE  75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 103.0W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 102.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.2N 104.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...120NE  60SE  20SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.8N 106.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.2N 107.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.7N 108.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.9N 109.7W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  90SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 20.0N 112.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 20.9N 114.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 103.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
 
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