ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
400 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

Dolores' convective cloud pattern has continued to improve overnight
with a distinct CDO now evident along with a large curved band
in the eastern semicircle. In addition, a warm spot has recently
appeared near the center of the CDO, a possible precursor to the
development of an eye.  The ship Asia Excellence, call sign C6AX5,
traversed the northeastern quadrant during the past several hours
and reported winds of 55 kt. Based on that report and a UW-CIMSS ADT
intensity estimate of T3.7/59 kt, the intensity of Dolores has been
increased to 55 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 290/11 kt, and is based on continuity
with the previous forecast and limited microwave fix data. The NHC
model guidance is in decent agreement on Dolores maintaining a
west-northwestward motion along with a decrease in forward speed
through the forecast period as a strong ridge to its north holds
steady. Some spread in the models occurs after 48 hours due to
differences in how they handle the large trough along the U.S. west
coast and how much it erodes the western portion of the ridge over
the U.S. desert southwest and northwestern Mexico. The reliable
ECMWF and GFS global models, and the regional HWRF model, keep the
ridge intact across Baja California, and the official track
forecast follows this scenario by keeping Dolores well to the south
and southwest of Baja California.  The latest NHC forecast lies
close to a blend of those three model tracks.

Dolores is expected to remain over SSTs greater than 28C for the
next 48 hours or so, during which time the deep-layer vertical
shear is expected to gradually weaken, especially after 24 hours
when the shear is forecast to decrease to less than 5 kt. This
combination, along with a moist mid-level environment, should allow
for Dolores to continue to strengthen into a significant hurricane.
Around 96-120 hours, Dolores is forecast to move over SSTs less
than 26C, which should induce gradual weakening. The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous advisory and follows the trend
of the Decay-SHIPS intensity model, which essentially brings Dolores
to major hurricane status by 48-72 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0900Z 16.6N 105.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 16.9N 106.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  14/0600Z 17.1N 107.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  14/1800Z 17.4N 108.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  15/0600Z 17.9N 109.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  16/0600Z 19.2N 111.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  17/0600Z 20.6N 113.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  18/0600Z 21.8N 116.6W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN