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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

Tropical Depression Five-E is gradually becoming better organized.
A broad convective band is present in the northeastern semicircle,
with the coldest cloud tops currently in a cluster to the north of
the center.  Satellite intensity estimates are 30 kt from TAFB and
25 kt from SAB, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt.  The cirrus
outflow is good in all directions except the southeast.

The initial motion is 300/8.  The consensus of the track guidance
is that the cyclone should move generally west-northwestward
parallel to the coast of Mexico for the next 48 hours or so,
steered by a deep-layer ridge over northern Mexico and the southern
United States.  The guidance becomes divergent after that time due
to the uncertainty in the evolution of a deep-layer trough over the
northeastern Pacific and the western United States.  The GFS and
ECMWF suggest that a ridge will build westward from Mexico between
the cyclone and the trough, and they thus forecast the depression
to turn westward. The UKMET, GFDL, and GFDN forecast the trough to
prevent the ridge from building, and thus show a northwestward
motion.  The new track forecast follows the GFS/ECMWF scenario in
showing a westward turn, and it lies a little to the south of the
previous track.

The depression is expected to remain in a moist environment and over
warm sea surface temperatures for the next several days.  The
vertical wind shear is currently light, and the environment is
favorable for rapid intensification during the next 24-36 hours as
shown by the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index.  However, the
cyclone currently lacks a well-defined inner core, and the GFS and
ECMWF suggest that a period of moderate northerly shear may affect
the cyclone around 48 hours.  These factors could slow or stop any
rapid intensification.  Overall, the intensity guidance is stronger
than that of the previous advisory, with the SHIPS model
forecasting an intensity near 100 kt by 120 hours.  The intensity
forecast calls for the same steady strengthening through 48 hours as
the previous forecast, then shows slightly higher intensities for
72-120 hours. The forecast is in best agreement with the intensity
consensus through 72 hours, and is near the SHIPS model after that.

Although the current track forecast remains offshore of Mexico, a
small deviation to the north of the projected track could require
the issuance of tropical storm watches or warnings for a portion of
the southwestern coast of Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0300Z 13.8N 100.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 14.6N 101.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 15.8N 103.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  13/1200Z 16.6N 105.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  14/0000Z 17.3N 106.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  15/0000Z 18.5N 108.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  16/0000Z 19.5N 110.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  17/0000Z 19.5N 112.0W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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