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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
1000 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

Corrected for AWIPS header.

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system located a
few hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico now meets the
criteria to be classified as a tropical depression, the fifth one of
the 2015 eastern North Pacific season.  The initial intensity
estimate is set at 30 kt.  The depression is producing a
considerable amount of deep convection mainly to the north of the
estimated low-level center with some of the outer rain bands
already affecting the coast of southern Mexico.

Warm water, high moisture, and decreasing shear should allow the
depression to steadily strengthen during the next several days.  In
fact, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a 50hance of
the depression strengthening 25 kt during the next 24 hours.  On
the other hand, the GFDL/HWRF pair are not very aggressive.  The
official intensity forecast prefers the SHIPS solution, and
lies at the high end of the guidance.

The initial motion estimate is 300/11, but this is fairly uncertain
due to the difficulty in locating the low-level center.  A motion
toward the west-northwest to northwest at about 10 kt is predicted
for the next couple of days while the cyclone is steered by a large
subtropical ridge centered over the south-central United States.  A
decrease in forward speed is expected by early next week when
the ridge weakens.  Although there is some spread in the models,
they agree on this general trend and the official track forecast is
the middle of the guidance envelope. This forecast keeps the core of
the cyclone offshore of Mexico, but a small deviation to the north
of this track could bring tropical storm conditions to the coast.
Interests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system since watches or warnings
could be required.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 13.2N  98.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 14.0N 100.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 15.4N 102.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  13/0000Z 16.6N 104.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  13/1200Z 17.6N 106.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  14/1200Z 18.9N 108.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  15/1200Z 19.9N 110.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  16/1200Z 20.4N 111.8W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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