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HURRICANE CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
2100 UTC SAT JUN 13 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM LAZARO
CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA MALDONADO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA MALDONADO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 100.0W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  978 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 120SE 100SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 100.0W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N  99.9W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.6N 100.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.1N 101.1W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.7N 102.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.3N 103.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.4N 104.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 21.0N 106.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 23.0N 106.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 100.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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