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TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
400 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

Carlos has changed little in strength during the last several
hours.  Infrared images and a recent GPM microwave image indicate
that the center is embedded within the deep convection. The latest
Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT were
unchanged from earlier, and support an intensity of 50 kt.
Northeasterly shear of about 15 kt is expected to persist
for another day or two, so only gradual intensification is
predicted.  Some weakening is forecast by the end of the period when
Carlos is expected to approach a drier airmass and cooler sea
surface temperatures.  Little change was made to the previous
intensity forecast, and it lies near the high end of the model
guidance.

The tropical storm is currently embedded in very weak steering
currents and has generally been drifting northwestward during the
past 6 hours or so.  The steering currents are expected to remain
weak for another day or so, therefore, Carlos will likely continue
to meander during that time.  Beyond 48 hours, mid-level ridging is
expected to build to the north of the storm resulting in a
west-northwestward to northwestward motion at a faster forward
speed. This forecast will keep the core of Carlos on a track
parallel to the coast of Mexico.  The model guidance has changed
little this cycle. The official track forecast is similar to the
previous one and is also close to the model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 14.7N 100.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 14.9N 100.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  13/0600Z 15.1N 101.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  13/1800Z 15.3N 101.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  14/0600Z 15.6N 101.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  15/0600Z 16.6N 103.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  16/0600Z 18.2N 106.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  17/0600Z 20.4N 107.8W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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