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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015

...POORLY ORGANIZED ERIKA CONTINUES TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 54.4W
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM E OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico and
the U.S Virgin Islands.

The Meteorological Service of Antigua has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for Anguilla and a Tropical Storm Watch for the
British Virgin Islands.

The Meteorological Service of Curacao has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius.

The Meteorological Service of St. Maarten has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for St. Maarten.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saba, St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
* Puerto Rico and the U.S Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 54.4 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a west to
west-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is
expected over the next 48 hours.  On the forecast track, the center
of Erika will be near the Leeward Islands Wednesday night and early
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is forecast during
the next 48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area by late Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area by Wednesday night or early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches over many of the Leeward Islands through Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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