Hurricane VANCE

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HURRICANE VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
0900 UTC MON NOV 03 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 110.3W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE  50SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 110.3W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 110.0W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.0N 110.7W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.9N 110.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.6N 109.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.4N 108.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 23.2N 107.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 110.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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